Of the remaining 32, Google Trends correctly predicted 27 of the primary elections, or an 84 percent success rate. For the Democratic primaries 37 states were analyzed, and five of those had to be thrown out because of insufficient data. Update: Just to clarify, the analysis looks at both Democratic and Republican primaries. An in-depth analysis of how predictive Google Trends was during the primaries (by Michael Giuffrida, a student in Virginia) shows that in at least half the cases for the Democratic primaries, Google Trends did a good job predicting the outcome. What is great about Google Trends, though, is that you can drill down by state. And there is a likely correlation between search volume and news mentions, which are also compared in the graph above (by pulling in data from Google News). Obviously, it is a close race and sentiment can go either way between now and November. And a Gallup poll shows a tighter race, with Obama at 46 percent verses McCain at 45 percent. poll conducted June 4 and 5, shows Obama ahead by 47 percent to McCain’s 43 percent (Ralph Nader has 6 percent). More traditional polls come to the same conclusion. If search volume is predictive of election results and the elections were held today, Obama would win. The screen shot above is from a comparison I just did between “Obama” and “McCain” in the U.S. Fortunately, Google lets anyone see the relative popularity of different search terms on Google Trends. But enough of the population does use Google that its search patterns cannot be ignored by either candidate, the press, or anyone interested in the outcome of the election. uses Google, or even uses the Internet, for that matter. If more people are searching on Google for “Obama” than “McCain” does that mean he is more likely to win the election?
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